Buckle up kids. It’s gonna be a fun ride.
2008 calling? 📞 ✨
2008 will be a nice memory compared to what’s coming
Don’t worry, the people responsible in 2008 were held accountable. They also didn’t profit massively off the economic collapse. Frodo also got the ring to Mordor. He had some help, but the ring was ultimately destroyed.
My favorite quote from The Big Short:
In the years that followed, hundreds of bankers and rating agency executives went to jail. The SEC was completely overhauled, and Congress had no choice but to break up the big banks and regulate the mortgage and derivatives industries.
Just kidding. Banks took the money the American people gave them, and they used it to pay themselves huge bonuses, and lobby the Congress to kill big reform. And then they blamed immigrants and poor people, and this time even teachers.
Obama’s biggest failures are not going after these fuckers and the W war criminals
I thought his biggest failure was his raining hellfire on whistleblowers, kids protesting, and immigrants, but I’m willing to debate this. The real sting is that we had such high hopes and we got …that, instead, and then Biden after. I was so happy when Obama was elected the first time.
So true, and God damn so effective.
Who was held responsible? That was a big joke.
Sauron
One brown man faced legal consequences for the 2008 crash. One brown man.
2008 USA had the financial means to avoid the worst. This isn’t the case anymore.
Another once in a lifetime event.
GenZ Literally never having seen a functioning economy (at least while being old enough to meaningfully comprehend its existence) I imagine Generation Alpha is gonna have it even more fucked.
Probably related to the now three Oracle data center that can’t get electricity.
Wisconsin passed a law that fast tracking large projects requires a high credit rating or collateral, to pay secure costs for building the power plants needed for the data center. In July Oracle’s debt rating was downgraded to near junk levels.
That means Oracle can no longer get Wisconsin to supply power to the data center so it’s a $15 billion dollar paper weight. Thats putting even further downward pressure on their credit rating and ability to secure loans to meet their $500B in obligations.
Now Oracle’s New Mexico data center is stuck due to contract issues with water and gas turbines, so they can’t move foreward. Oracle has a 9% interest rate on the loans to build that, then they raise 2% after construction, because their credit rating is dogshit. So now Oracle is claiming force majeur to get out of their increased debt obligations, which you can imagine, is killing interest in lending to them.
In Texas they just blocked new grid hookups over political backlash to skyrocketing electricity prices. That killed another Oracle expansion they just canceled, and another one is trucking in gas for gas turbines as an alternative to the electrical grid, which you might imagine is expensive.
Which brings us to now. The banks are looking at local opposition blocking these projects (local action is working), states are blocking them to avoid getting voted out, hardware costs are shooting up, and the assets backing these loans are too small for so much investment.
So the level of risk no longer works.
—
My personal theory is that Oracle is a sacrificial lamb. It’s a dead end tech company that lives on licensing fees, and they’ve fucked themselves on these expansions. They’re failing at being a hyper-scaler as margins decrease.
I bet we see someone take Oracle private when their stock collapses, freeing the board of fiduciary duty to the stakeholders with a payout. This move is critical because it blocks other hyperscalers from putting in an offer to acquire their assets to shore up debt.
OpenAI will acquire the now private Oracle through a special funding round and buy up their hardware for pennies on the dollar. This will absolve them of the debt obligations Oracle has to OpenAI that have killed their credit ($500b), and stabilizes the Oracle balance sheet.
OpenAI will write this down and offer Oracle’s creditors equity stakes in lieu of cash, and will have acquired all their next gen hardware far cheaper than their competitors.
This might even fuck over Nvidia, the incestuous funders of the AI circlejerk. If Oracle gets to write off their GPU debts then Nvidia loses a fuck ton of sales, tanking their stock price — they take that OpenAI equity offer and look like they’re playing the game. OpenAI wants to build their own chips anyways, just look at jalapeño.
Oracle can no longer get Wisconsin to supply power to the data center so it’s a $15 billion dollar paper weight.
Fucking lol
It’s even better because they signed contracts that guarantee that capacity to OpenAI, guarantee payments to their creditors, and Oracle is on the hook for it all with no outs.
Which is why I think it’s all a play, oracle famously is very lawyer heavy, they wouldn’t sign such stupid deals for no reason.
they wouldn’t sign such stupid deals for no reason.
Greed. The reason was greed. They bought into the hype and thought they could print money.
And all the tech companies are doing it, Oracle was just the sick man of the bunch, and will be the first to fall, dragging the rest down with them.
All because they’re offloading trillions in debt to special purpose vehicles, the same thing that tanked Enron, the difference is that Enron, with $400 million in debt, was lying about it, and the current tech companies doing the exact same shit, are disclosing the debt legally, but still hiding it in the fine print of their disclosures.
The debt will still crash the economy, but at least it’s out in the open?
Also Larry is not nearly as sharp or thorough as he used to be, and he’s turned into a bit of a crumugeonly headstrong dick in his old age. No 82 year old is as sharp as they ised to be, despite how people like to lie about it. No 70 year old feels 40 anymore either. He has made numerous mistakes inside Oracle, and now he has run the whole company straight off a cliff, as aging boomers will tend to do.
isn’t he also personally on-the-hook for debt used in recent ‘media ventures’, too?
At least Wisconsin learned something from the Foxconn scam.
Wisconsin has a preternatural ability not to learn things tho. They’re up there with Kansas and Florida.
It’s happening!!! Bubble pop is happening!!! article is underplaying it.
Coreweave debt pushed towards 16% yield today. The worst of the AI clusterfuck. Oracle, 2nd worse, move to 8% which is still absurdly low, but was holding 6% a week ago.
Main headline, yes the big banks are selling off debt to losertards. At a discount. Insurance companies are the losertards chasing yield, but have big losses today.
Nvidia, the circular financing backstop for the bubble, signaled today that it is just waiting for bankruptcies to swoop in instead of propping up the fraud. Bond/share holders will get crushed, and bubble dead, but still Nvidia will drive rampocalypse if the datacenters are still alllowed.
yep, adding in open AI’s oopsie accounting - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/oct/09/openai-forecast-revenue-gap
burst, baby, burst!
It’s about time for the ultra-wealthy to create another 2007 so they can wrench the last bits of wealth off anyone who isn’t already a $100Ms-billionaire.
Is the bailout going to be because of national security or is it going to be a to big to fail situation.
If they get a bailout, are we ready to drag recipient ghouls through the streets?
Well now, that looks familiar. Rats leaving a sinking ship.
That is on top of the $18 billion in bonds it sold in a single day last September
That’s $6.57 trillion in annualized debt using AI bubble math.
The year my paycheck lands on Jan 1, my personal financial projections are gonna look SO AMAZING
Clearly you aren’t a megacorp. Just set your fiscal year to begin on the day of your paycheck. Checkmate, YNAB.
I dont know that we can collectively understand a number that big and what it means to us. People barely comprehend what a billion is.
Banks are in the business of underwriting debt and reselling it to private investors.
We’ve been reading this “End is Near” shit since COVID. Put something more on the table.
Owning a debt from the AI industry is a fairly insane amount of risk
Is it? They’ve been outperforming every other debt class for five years running.
Do you think they can maintain that for another 5 years? Another 20? Is the product AI companies providing worth the valuations?
Are 5 AI companies providing more value than every other tech company in the last 50 years? Thats what the valuations are trying to say. Im still waiting on ChatGPT to cure cancer.
Do you think they can maintain that for another 5 years? Another 20?
I think expecting NVIDIA to fail inside the next five years is a wild reach. You might expect Oracle to take haircut in the next five years, based on their atrocious debt load. But even then, the idea that they’ll miss a credit payment?
Twenty years out, these firms are an even safer bet. Long term demand for compute and hosting services is only going up. And they’re so heavily consolidated. Too Big To Fail in every sense of the word. Are you going to bet against JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs on the eve of the financial crisis, even? Twenty years later, how are they doing?
Are 5 AI companies providing more value than every other tech company in the last 50 years?
It’s not a question of value, it’s a question of earnings growth. Will these top 5 AI companies be seeing stratospheric earnings growth in the next ten years? All signs point to “Yes”. The race to cement these data center footprints is a scramble for limited resources. The Capex budgets won’t be inflated to this degree forever.
Dismissing them for their rapid expansion would be like betting against New York and Chicago real estate markets because you didn’t trust skyscrapers to be profitable in another 20 years. Or betting against U.S. Steel and Standard Oil at the apex of WW2, because the resource demand from the conflict can’t go on forever.
I’m not saying they will fail I’m saying they will not maintain their rate of growth. Very, very different things but i guess you can pretend i said something else and argue against that or whatever idk dude lol
I’m not saying they will fail I’m saying they will not maintain their rate of growth.
They’ll hit a saturation point eventually, sure. But demand for capacity continues to outstrip supply.
Their yields going higher and higher is not “outperforming”, it’s the opposite. Higher yield = higher risk.
Do you have any statistics?
Bad tech rapidly became a central pillar to that buying/selling and everyone is realizing it may be worthless.
everyone is realizing it may be worthless
Idk who you think “everyone” is
I’ve been reading, “the end is near,” since HIV/Aids, y2k, 9/11, the SARS outbreak, the anthrax scare, the swine flu/h1n1 and the several ebola outbreaks. Oh yeah all those wmd scares and the potential for a world War after 9/11.
The end is always fuckin’ near. If it’s all gonna end fuckin’ do it already!!! That’s what I think and it’s the waiting and the probabilities of the what-ifs that I can’t fucking take.
Seriously, if they wanted to end it all they could, they just make threats to control everything with fear because all governments are terrorist fucking babys that ironically, need to maintain a society.
Sounds like movable mortgage debt from 2008
I have an idea: they could package all the AI debt into securities and then sell it off in small pieces to individual investors. By spreading out the investment over many different loans, the risk of default will be greatly reduced. It’s not like ALL the AI companies are going to default all at once, right? Ha ha.
Is this similar to the Dot.Com bubble burst?
Also like the 2008 housing crash.
Speaking as an ancient person that has survived 40+ years of a capitalist hellscape, Yes. The bubble always bursts.
It is a thing that bubbles do.
I remember the wall coming down and Denmark winning the UEFA cup in '92…
I think the AI bubble is gonna be so much worse than dotcom or housing in 2008. To me this AI bullshit is the dotcom on steroids.
And we won’t even get infrastructure out of this. Just a bunch of half finished data centers & $500B in currently warehoused specialized GPUs that can’t easily be repurposed.
AND an industry that has an inflated sense of pricing
I suspect this might be worse due to the amount of money being thrown around. As much as I want the companies responsible for the stupid bubble to go bankrupt, there’s a lot of money from pension and investment funds, so that’s going to hurt a lot of people who had nothing to do with that.
I’d love it if it was packaged up into securities and credit rating agencies gave those securities an A+++ would buy again rating so my wallstreet-managed 401k knows where to steal my money.
Sub prime mortgages on crack with this BS.
hopefully the fed doesn’t bail em out this time
Your comment is at 0% up votes. Did you not even vote it up yourself?
Some of our comments don’t deserve even one upvote.
Well, it’s also at 0 down votes. So, at least they didn’t down vote themselves?
So how would a (by now inevitable) government bailout not trigger an untenable treasury yield?
Print more money lol, although that’s sometimes referred to as a “soft default”
Ooo I know this one! I won’t give out any spoilers.
Apparently they’ve spent 10 trillion in commitments that soan to 2032… And have to get AI earning to 3 trillion a year to avoid a crash.
…and there’s 8 billion people on earth. So I assume they’re hoping for some lucrative corporate/government contracts and bailouts.
