President Trump said the U.S. would impose 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries that trade with Russia if Moscow does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine in the next 50 days.

  • Saleh@feddit.org
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    7 days ago

    There can be various purposes to a ceasefire.

    • The most direct one is that a ceasefire gives a space in which diplomatic options can be discussed as both sides believe that there could be an opening where they gain more than with continued fighting.
    • The other direct option is that both sides believe that they can achieve a temporary ceasefire to rearm/regroup for subsequent fighting, believing that they can do so better than the enemy.
    • There could be external or internal political pressure to attempt diplomatic options, which will subsequently be derailed
    • There could be humanitarian reasons, albeit that seems to not be relevant these days, with humanitarian reasons being given as pretense at best
    • There could be religious reasons, such as the observation of a shared holiday, albeit that also seems to not be relevant these days

    For Ukraine as it stands there is little reason to believe that Ukraine will be able to retake their territory fully, unless the support from the West would come in the shape of boots on the ground and massive amounts of arms. As for Russia it seems Russia is slowly gaining territory while incurring high losses and taking very bad economic hits at home. So there could come a point of collapse of the Russian army. From Ukraines perspective however, unless that happens, if Russia gets weaker, they could always retreat to a reinforced line and take the gains they have made.

    Accepting defeat probably will not be taken lightly and will be the certain end to Zelensky’s rule, so i don’t think he’s to enthusiastic about a ceasefire. But it also seems that the Western Allies, in particular the US are not willing to give Ukraine what it takes and rather see an end to the war, with the EU countries probably following the US in trying to recoup some of the military spending by buying up Ukraine at a discount.

    For Putin on the other hand it is questionable, if he can sell the current state as a “victory” that justifies the losses. I guess for Russia to agree to a long term ceasefire they would demand to keep the current territories and be immediately relieved of sanctions.