In a week in which former allies in a redividing globe separately commemorated the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war, the sense of a runaway descent towards a third world war draws ever closer.
The implosion of Pax Americana, the interconnectedness of conflicts, the new willingness to resort to unbridled state-sponsored violence and the irrelevance of the institutions of the rules-based order have all been on brutal display this week. From Kashmir to Khan Younis, Hodeidah, Port Sudan and Kursk, the only sound is of explosions, and the only lesson is that the old rules no longer apply.
Indeed Fiona Hill, the policy analyst and adviser to the UK government on its imminent strategic defence review, argues the third world war has already started, if only we would recognise it.
I wonder what even defines a world war anymore.
There have been several major conflicts in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, ISIS) that has involved a significant portion of the world and their armies. So why don’t those count as world wars?
Or does it only count as a world war if it happens here on European soil?
Superpowers fighting one another directly across multiple continents. A substantial share of the world population directly involved.
As terrible as Palestine, sudan, Congo, Yemen, and Ukraine are (I’m sure I missed a few hotspots), they’re rounding errors in terms of percentage of world population.
I’d argue at least a number of the belligerents need to have switched to a war economy and then simultaneously span multiple continents.
Maybe only Ukraine right now is in a war economy?
Russia is kind of in a war economy as well.
Yeah maybe since they are kind of hiding some of the war costs. But it’s definitely less than what Ukraine is spending.
Depends on definition. The West is under constant attack by Russia for years now, but not in open war. Look at Putins use of psyops, his support for Brexit, for extremist groups and politicians, his hold on Trump and the way he uses him to destroy the US, with the MAGAs happily clapping and pushing the country down the fashism road.
Putin attacked Ukraine for nor voting his puppet into office, and grooms wannabe dictators wherever he can.
That’s just the Cold War which never actually ended
and grooms wannabe dictators wherever he can.
Let’s give him some credit, he managed to appeal to enough inbred racists to take power in the most powerful nation on the planet by far.
His strategy isn’t without evidentiary backing.
To talk about the Gaza conflict in the context of a world war is ridiculous.
Yes the human atrocities are enormous, and the moral sickness equals Nazi Germany. But it is not part of a “world war”.
Yes there are many conflicts around the world ATM. But many separate conflicts do not equal a world war.
And no we are not already in a world war.A world at war does not equal a world war. Wonder what is the definition then
And yet if 2 billion muslim people decide they will fight for Palestinians and the US continues to be Israels bitch and tries to protect them from the consequences of their war crimes, itll be a world war.
Like they ever cared.
Has there ever been even the slightest indication of that? The Muslim world has had 70 years to fight Israel, and when someone tried, nobody was helping. I admit I don’t have much understanding of the politics of the middle east, but it seems to be a very far fetched speculation.
Fair point, although Isreal is now making moves on Syria and Lebanon, and if they continue to follow Ben Gurions plan they will attack Jordan and Egypt as well. And Israel hates turkey and hopes to draw the US into a war with Iran, which would not be easy. Israel cant be trusted to stop attacking people before they do something stupid.
Israel hates turkey and hopes to draw the US into a war with Iran,
I acknowledge this is 100% a true scenario, it even seemed Israel almost succeeded last Trump was president, by almost I mean it was very very close. So absolutely a conflict involving Israel and USA vs Iran cannot be ruled out.
I think Trump likes the idea of the power of being US commander of a war. The man is completely sick in the head.
But I don’t think it will escalate to a world war. The moment USA steps in and goes to war, nobody wants to go up against USA if they have the option not to. USA is simply too powerful.
If anything current could be called a prelude to a world war it would be America’s trade war against the rest of the world because virtually nothing else going on involves enough nations to qualify.
I agree, also because USA is alienating allies, and this clearly emboldens China, Russia and Iran.
But this will hurt USA too, and Trump will hopefully declare victory soon and end it.
Scenario: Israel strikes Iran with missiles, but this time Iran responds for real, with many dead. Maga shithawks jump on the conflict like they’ve been drooling to. Escalation spreads to Iraq and the arabian peninsula. Russia leans in heavily but in other theatres, chaotically. The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence, and with internal tensions stretched thin due to authoritarian members of the union. Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly and the USA pulls out.
While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan. Shit gets real everywhere, multiple African nations pulled in. Layers upon layers of conflict reflect the global complexity of it all.
Maga shithawks jump on the conflict
If USA attack Iran together with Israel, Iran doesn’t stand a chance. It will be a very short war like when USA invaded Iraq.
Escalation spreads to Iraq
There is no logical path for that.
Russia leans in heavily
Russian military is a joke now, they have their hands more than full in Ukraine.
The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence
That doesn’t make much sense, but let’s say there is a “whatever” reason. That would just make the defeat of Iran even quicker.
Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly
China has kept it’s distance from the conflict, and I don’t think China wants to actively increase instability in a world where they are making so much progress. Instability is bad for business. The way China has behaved NOT helping Russia much for 3 years, shows they would much rather participate in deescalation.
While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan.
This is probably your best point IMO, but as I see it, China has to wait at least 5 more likely 10, until China has independent chip production that at a minimum matches Taiwan and the west. At this point in time, an invasion of Taiwan would be very disruptive to many of the industries that are most important to China.
Even then it’s a very big question if China thinks it’s worth the enormous diplomatic crisis that would follow.So all in all, I don’t really see your thought experiment having much risk of leading to a world war.
Even though other scenarios might exist, I don’t really see that as a risk we should worry too much about.
Putin going even more crazy and using nukes is probably the biggest danger the world is facing ATM. Gaza is next to irrelevant by comparison.
But I suspect if Putin uses nukes, many of his allies will abandon him. And he will become a valid target for the entire world, and the Russian federation will not be allowed to survive.
India and Pakistan fighting is normal. If ever they become allies, that’s when you can be absolutely positive that some real shit is going to go down.
I figure the world is right about where it was in 1936.
Only with cheap, autonomous, killer drones now!
No we’re back to good old Proxy Wars.
I remember a refrain between my dad and I over Biden’s term, “Could you just imagine what would happen right now if Trump was in office handling this…?” mostly in reference to Ukraine and even Gaza.
No imagination necessary now…
“How about a nice game of chess?”
