What do they have to lose though? The moment the US starts bombing again the missiles start to fly.
What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.
A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.
Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.
What they lose is momentum. Oil prices, which is basically the only thing the Trump base cares about, are already falling, and if the ceasefire ever breaks, it will take quite some time to build them back up again. A lot of countries are already making plans to diversify away from the Gulf to mitigate that risk, some are looking into pipelines to avoid the strait altogether. All of which diminishes what leverage Iran has.
A second closure of the strait of Hormuz will much, much less effective.
Secondly, the politicians, journos and billionaires who supported that war on Iran are still very much here. This is far from over. The Americans will be back; not tomorrow, maybe not even this year, but when some opportunity arises again. This war was Iran’s chance to engrave into the American psyche some Vietnam-like PTSD every time they hear the word “Hormuz”, to make sure they never, ever try an attack like this again. With this ceasefire, they’re forfeiting that too, further allowing the US to buy more time.