Archive article: https://archive.ph/LJPiZ
A new survey showing that 82 percent of Jewish Israelis support the expulsion of Gazans was met with disbelief among those who stubbornly believe that the extremists are outliers. But these trends are as consistent as they are shocking
How can the war realistically end?
A return to the pre-war status quo. The withdrawal of Israeli troops, presumably in return for the hostages, with either Hamas or another group equally hostile to Israel in control of Gaza. This is the worst-case scenario for Israel, because it represents a total failure to eliminate the source of more potential October 7 attacks. I suspect it’s the worst-case scenario for Gaza too, since future attacks on Israel would lead to future destruction in Gaza.
The destruction of Hamas and the establishment of a Gazan government friendly towards Israel, perhaps by the Palestinian authority or a coalition of Arab states. Very difficult and failure-prone, but a pathway to peace in the long term. I had hoped that this would be the outcome when the war started but it isn’t what Netanyahu is trying to accomplish and by now I’m not sure there’s enough goodwill left for it to still be possible.
Permanent Israeli occupation. I don’t think Israel can maintain such an occupation - it would be extremely expensive in money, lives, and international goodwill. Netanyahu and his supporters seem to think that Israel can, but many of them seem to make plans reliant on divine intervention.
Expulsion of the population of Gaza. Egypt wouldn’t accept that without a war. Maybe Trump thinks he can find another country that would, but even if he did (unlikely) then the logistics of moving two million people would be extremely challenging. I think this outcome is effectively impossible - another one of the “divine intervention required” plans. However, it would be a best-case scenario for Israel. The gain in territory means little, but no longer having Gazans as neighbors immediately ends the conflict for good, which no other outcome does.
If (2) isn’t going to happen then (4) may be the best case scenario for everyone. Even the people being expelled and their descendants would probably be better off than they would be if they remain in Gaza for for many more decades of conflict. However, I very much doubt that it can happen.
Best time to break the blockade was the 90s, the second best time is now.
So… a nation and a religion that was defined by its thousand-year exile by an evil empire forces another nation into a thousand-year exile as the acting hand of another evil empire.
Please understand that this is, on every conceivable level, insanely fucked up and flies in the face of both reason and morality.
The best solution would be to have an integrated, secular government and plans for reparation, return, and reconciliation.
Do you think maybe not giving an ethnostate unlimited veto support and munitions is an option before your 4 tiers of capitulation of, at best, a return to the apartheid that resulted in Hamas?
Even if they managed to aquire no. 2, many Israeli settlers won’t accept this and will keep driving off Palestinians. With media attention focused on gaza, hostages, and the genocide war or Endlösung of the Palestinian question, those settlers openly drive out or outright kill people living on the land longer than Israel exists. Peace in Gaza won’t stop this.
Hamas isn’t the problem. Both Hamas and the PA tried peace and a 2-state solution along 1967 borders. The Arab League offered peace and normalization to Israel on similar terms in 2002. Israel, specifically the right which keeps winning elections, rejected all peace attempts. Netanyahu’s party the Likud adheres to the ideology of Jabotinsky and refuses any Palestinian statehood at all:
Jabotinsky wanted to go further and claim both banks of the Jordan river. Today in Israel talks of annexing Lebanon, Syria and beyond as part of Greater Israel are becoming more mainstream.