Not many. The thing about globalization and repealing the 20th century is that its a wobbly 3D Rube Goldberg domino landscape. 1-2 dickheads per continent is all it takes.

Literally a chapter in the Art of War.

Gotcha, sorry I thought you meant in a sort of a more large-scale coordinated way with the authoritarians.

The easiest way for China to take Taiwan back is to wait for something complicated to occupy the military and WH, even only at the very top leadership level. A protracted and undeniable scandal, another major shake-up while the boss is out of town, or the end result of all this internal military use for law enforcement that seems to want to end posse comitatus within I think 80-ish days at this point, are all options. Spin up the machine to catch it’s own tail and the response elsewhere will be too little and too late because of the more hierarchical nature of decison-making now. Steve Bannon’s own “flood the zone with shit” tactic, inspired by Tsun Tzu.

Chip fab won’t matter because nothing else logical has mattered so far. Why jump straight to a trade war with all your largest trading partners without even preparing for it? Foolishness and ego. Same same here as well.

You’re correct, however, keep in mind that authoritarians have fragile egos and are often focused locally, often on how to further subjugate their populations and garner favor. That usually means conflicts like insurgency or cross-border attacks like Russia into Ukraine (x2), Russia into Georgia, US into Mexico/Canada, India and Pakistan fighting over Cashmere, PRC and Taiwan, Serbia and Kosovo, Kenya/Somalia/Somalil and, Uganda and eastern DRC, etc. etc.

Boomer pissing contest fantasies of China and the US duking it out in the Pacific are foolish as neither wants to risk direct conflict with no tangible gains expected. It’s a guarantee of either outright loss or maaaaybe a Pyrrhic victory of you already control your media. No landing party flotilla will land in Los Angeles or Hong Kong. The US only stands to lose.

Not at all.

What we’ll get is not one big World War of Axis vs. Allies, but everyone at war with some kind of small regional pissing contest or insurgency.

Sure, most of the world will be in some form of conflict, but it won’t be a “World War” in the same sense of a 20-on-20 prolonged conflict with well-defined nation-states on each side. Not that this opinion survey can really capture that.